Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E1 0xe1e6…298d other 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,318 (+1%) realized +$1,318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%32W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,792per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$25
14 days+$8
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$665
politics 36% −$115
sports 12% +$841
economics 3% −$11
culture 1% −$4
finance 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$3
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 +9.7% -0.7% 14% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 7% -9.6%
all 145 +10.8% +0.2% 22% 17% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 17% -9.1%
10% -9.3% 17% -17.8%
15% -18.1% 14% -25.7%
20% -26.1% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,542) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$10 · ×7.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized+$1,318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses32 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,792
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $246 $246 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $244 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $5,771 −$8 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,275 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,633 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,675 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,670 −$3 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $6,890 −$7 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,697 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5,683 −$6 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $6,834 −$7 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,437 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $53 +$73 +140%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,139 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $46 +$59 +129%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $85 +$53 +62%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $780 +$3 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $2,634 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,542 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $4,124 −$5 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $931 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $2,476 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,909 −$6 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $3,279 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,673 −$3 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $58 +$64 +109%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $65 +$61 +93%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $7,238 −$8 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $3,120 −$4 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,736 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $5,047 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 3h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 6h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 8h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 24h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 26h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $233 27h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $234 28h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 32h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 33h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,567 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,569 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,672 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,675 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,667 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,670 8d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,584 8d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,587 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $1,688 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $1,690 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,651 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,629 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,631 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,534 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,537 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,647 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,649 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.46 · official $246.46 (match) · 536 history records