Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E1 0xe1e3…d2da weather 1167 markets active 1d ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,206 (+1%) realized +$1,206 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%1086W / 81L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day74.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$118
14 days+$56
30 days+$638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,271
crypto 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 +4.7% -5.2% 91% 1% -8.6%
≤30d 884 +1.1% -8.6% 93% 1% -8.9%
≤90d 1167 +4.8% -5.2% 93% 2% -8.0%
all 1167 +4.8% -5.2% 93% 2% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 2% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 2% -16.8%
15% -22.5% 2% -24.9%
20% -30.1% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1086 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1167 / 1167
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$112
Trades / day74.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1167 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $292 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +980%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$5 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 57¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $6 34h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 94¢ $28 37h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 75¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 70¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $55 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $34 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $79 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records