Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E1 0xe1e0…fe32 sports 487 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$122 (-2%) realized −$63 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%218W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$110
14 days−$349
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$273
world 6% −$26
other 4% −$30
politics 1% −$23
crypto 1% +$28
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -18.2% -26.0% 36% 26% -28.9%
≤30d 459 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 39% -13.1%
≤90d 459 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 39% -13.1%
all 459 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 39% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 39% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -21.4%
15% -29.6% 26% -29.0%
20% -36.5% 18% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses218 / 241
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions28
Markets (closed)459 / 487
History coverage27d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 459 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $12 $17 +$6 (+51%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 78¢ 83¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 37¢ 44¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 37¢ 34¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 52¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 68¢ 66¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 62¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 19¢ 57¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+203%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 24¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 65¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 33¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Bangladesh 15¢ 3¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-83%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 18¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-94%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $11 $1 −$11 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $4 +$2 +53%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -12%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 −$9 -39%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 -12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 $0 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -78%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +116%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $15 −$7 -44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $8 −$6 -81%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$1 -50%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $11 +$11 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $4 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$7 +48%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$6 +42%
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$5 +71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $10 −$2 -21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $0 2m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 36m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $4 37m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 40¢ $3 38m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 20¢ $1 43m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 19¢ $1 53m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 33¢ $3 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 45¢ $7 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 54¢ $8 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 45¢ $7 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 45¢ $7 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 11h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 11h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 34¢ $3 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 37¢ $4 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 65¢ $6 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 64¢ $6 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.29 · official $128.29 (match) · 1376 history records