Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1da…441e sports 106 markets active 4d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$569 (-3%) realized −$495 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%59W / 41L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$309
14 days−$633
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$389
other 6% −$105
politics 4% −$349
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -14.6% -22.7% 59% 41% -31.0%
≤30d 89 -1.9% -11.3% 64% 48% -11.3%
≤90d 100 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 45% -13.1%
all 100 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 45% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 45% -13.1%
10% -22.2% 28% -21.4%
15% -29.7% 16% -29.0%
20% -36.6% 11% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$96 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$495
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses59 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions24
Markets (closed)100 / 106
History coverage67d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $17 $22 +$4 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $50 −$39 -78%
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Carolina Alves Jun 12 $21 +$9 +41%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $26 +$14 +51%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $18 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $26 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $85 −$68 -80%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $26 +$4 +16%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $75 +$39 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $311 −$288 -93%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $224 −$20 -9%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $21 −$20 -93%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $52 +$8 +15%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $103 +$38 +36%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $53 +$47 +88%
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $182 +$18 +10%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $69 +$91 +132%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $52 +$18 +34%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $38 +$12 +30%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 09 $164 +$29 +18%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Hiromi Abe Jun 09 $50 −$34 -69%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $65 −$8 -12%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $305 +$105 +34%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $650 −$25 -4%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $287 +$63 +22%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $54 +$46 +86%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $75 +$37 +49%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $285 +$6 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $96 +$4 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $334 +$76 +23%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $118 +$25 +22%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $34 +$6 +19%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 05 $95 +$5 +5%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $859 −$319 -37%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $599 +$28 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $30 −$11 -36%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $5 +$1 +19%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva May 28 $68 +$33 +48%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Pavel Kotov May 28 $847 −$412 -49%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $341 −$49 -14%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Sandro Kopp May 28 $238 +$28 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $261 +$39 +15%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $880 −$94 -11%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 28 $94 +$6 +6%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $203 +$97 +48%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $92 +$18 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Toronto Tempo 11¢ $11 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 42¢ $8 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 48¢ $13 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 48¢ $1 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $4 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $17 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 54¢ $6 4d
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Carolina Alves SELL Carolina Alves 100¢ $30 4d
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Carolina Alves BUY Carolina Alves 71¢ $1 4d
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Carolina Alves BUY Carolina Alves 71¢ $21 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 66¢ $20 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $7 4d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus SELL Tatiana Prozorova 63¢ $18 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 45¢ $18 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $3 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $3 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $20 5d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Tatiana Prozorova 60¢ $12 5d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Tatiana Prozorova 67¢ $3 5d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Tatiana Prozorova 67¢ $3 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 51¢ $26 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 17¢ $17 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 86¢ $20 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 86¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 85¢ $85 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 51¢ $15 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 55¢ $16 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $17 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $24 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $55 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.85 · official $70.85 (match) · 978 history records