Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe1d8…4caa
weather · 348 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses314 / 30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)344 / 348
History coverage65d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 344 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on April 25? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 28? No 90¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 28 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 26? May 27 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 88¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? BUY No 90¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? BUY No 97¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4? BUY No 94¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? BUY No 90¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? BUY No 89¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? BUY No 90¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2? BUY No 94¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1? BUY No 96¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? BUY No 95¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 19% -5.0%
≤30d 90 +1.6% -8.0% 94% 17% -8.0%
≤90d 344 -1.0% -10.5% 91% 22% -10.2%
all 344 -1.0% -10.5% 91% 22% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 22% -10.2%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.34 · official $4.10 · 736 history records