Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe1d4…a31e
weather · 818 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,494 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,712 · open +$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$761
Realized−$2,712
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses359 / 632
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions58
Markets (closed)991 / 818
History coverage58d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 58 History 991 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,319
7 days−$1,544
14 days−$872
30 days−$918
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 68¢ 100¢ $76 $112 +$36 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 83¢ 88¢ $76 $82 +$5 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 68¢ 58¢ $70 $61 −$10 (-14%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Bilibili Gaming 62¢ 100¢ $27 $44 +$17 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 67¢ 62¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 90¢ 98¢ $29 $31 +$3 (+9%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Monte 85¢ 100¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+18%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 67¢ 52¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 80¢ 92¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+14%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 37¢ 17¢ $63 $29 −$34 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 53¢ 73¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 93¢ 81¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 95¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 95¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 85¢ 81¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel? Yes 49¢ 61¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 42¢ 54¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+29%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) Bilibili Gaming 31¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+222%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Memphis Roundtable? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 24? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Israel" 3+ times during Monday press conference? Jun 14 $4 −$7 -173%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15? Jun 14 $44 −$27 -62%
Will Trump say "Alien" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on April 7? Jun 14 $0 −$3 -93052%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" in Corpus Christi on Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -137%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Jun 14 $0 −$8 -959188%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on April 17 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ap Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on April 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 8? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on April 17 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 24? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Democrat" during College Football Roundtable? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "God" 7+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? Jun 14 $0 +$2 +2200%
Will Trump say "Oil" 5+ times during Monday press conference? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the announcers say "Knockout" or "Knock Out" or "Knocked Out" dur Jun 14 $0 −$1 -1187%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of t Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "China" during March press conference? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -136%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 19? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Will Trump say "Secretary of War" during Medal of Honor ceremony on Ma Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26? Jun 14 $1 +$49 +4399%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23? Jun 14 $3 +$26 +831%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during Monday press conference? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 8? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19? Jun 14 $1 +$20 +1567%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 11? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 29? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 29? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 21? Jun 14 $24 −$22 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 14 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Venezuela" during meetings with Orbán? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 28? Jun 14 $29 −$24 -82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 37% +$610
other 26% −$1,583
weather 23% −$77
politics 7% +$105
crypto 2% −$13
world 2% −$28
culture 2% −$38
tech 0% +$10
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $7 2m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $7 15m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 68¢ $27 17m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 68¢ $15 17m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 68¢ $30 17m
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 48¢ $2 20m
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 48¢ $2 20m
Brockmann vs. Parks: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 27m
Will Odds BK win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 40m
Will Odds BK win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 40m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 49m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 52¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 69¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 69¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 69¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $109 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 63¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 63¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 85¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 63¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 63¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 71¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 404 +9.7% -0.7% 26% 21% -34.5%
≤30d 583 +4.2% -5.7% 32% 25% -21.5%
≤90d 991 -5.2% -14.2% 36% 24% -27.8%
all 991 -5.2% -14.2% 36% 24% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 24% -27.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 18% -34.7%
15% -29.9% 14% -41.0%
20% -36.8% 12% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $760.68 · official $758.00 (match) · 3500 history records