Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe1d3…f419
other · 67 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$34 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$86
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses33 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)49 / 67
History coverage124d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 18 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 41¢ 23¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-43%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 71¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+39%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 87¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 84¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 80¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 41¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 05 $44 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $27 +$6 +22%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 21 $19 +$6 +35%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 21 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $23 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $6 +$4 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 05 $13 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 05 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 21 $6 $0 +2%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 11 $16 −$16 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March? Apr 06 $23 +$1 +4%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $12 +$8 +71%
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 06 $28 +$3 +11%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 06 $25 +$11 +45%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $2 $0 +10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $31 $0 +1%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 09 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Mar 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 02 $8 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 02 $8 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 02 $10 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 02 $5 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $22 +$3 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 12? Feb 17 $1 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 12 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% +$7
crypto 19% +$9
sports 15% +$1
politics 13% +$8
finance 7% +$8
economics 6% −$3
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $21 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 87¢ $8 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $5 7d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $11 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $15 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 14d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 33¢ $3 14d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 77¢ $7 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $15 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 90¢ $12 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 91¢ $15 23d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 86¢ $11 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +23.4% +11.6% 90% 40% -0.3%
≤90d 37 +4.5% -5.5% 70% 22% -4.8%
all 49 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 18% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 18% -5.0%
10% -14.8% 12% -14.1%
15% -23.1% 8% -22.4%
20% -30.6% 6% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.11 · official $82.94 · 244 history records