Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1d2…0ecf weather 827 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (288 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$986 (+4%) realized +$1,091 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate51%234W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day288.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$225
14 days−$157
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$98
other 8% −$202
tech 4% +$39
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (288 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 374 -47.8% -52.7% 43% 3% -11.2%
≤30d 463 -41.0% -46.6% 51% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 463 -41.0% -46.6% 51% 4% -10.2%
all 463 -41.0% -46.6% 51% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover288.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.6% 4% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -51.7% 2% -18.8%
15% -56.4% 2% -26.6%
20% -60.7% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$2,611
Realized+$1,091
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses234 / 229
Open positions299
Markets (closed)463 / 827
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day288.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 299 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $768 $787 +$19 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 50¢ 94¢ $100 $188 +$88 (+88%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 82¢ 81¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 96¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 75¢ 100¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 17 $16 −$19 -121%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 25? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ozzy Lusth win Survivor Season 50? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on May 16? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 22? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 24? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on May 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -105%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on May 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 28? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on May 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on May 21? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 2m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $30 4m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $25 4m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $24 4m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $6 5m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $14 5m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $96 5m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $25 18m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 32m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 55m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,610.55 · official $2,609.82 (match) · 3500 history records