Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E1 0xe1d0…df5c crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+6%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +10.7% +0.1% 82% 27% -3.0%
≤30d 11 +10.7% +0.1% 82% 27% -3.0%
≤90d 11 +10.7% +0.1% 82% 27% -3.0%
all 11 +10.7% +0.1% 82% 27% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 27% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 18% -12.3%
15% -18.2% 18% -20.8%
20% -26.2% 18% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$33 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$18 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $15 −$6 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $73 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $13 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $9 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $15 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records