Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1cd…8e46 sports 46 markets active 6d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-21%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$35
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$23
other 33% −$4
crypto 7% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 44% 44% -50.2%
≤30d 45 -15.6% -23.6% 47% 42% -29.6%
≤90d 45 -15.6% -23.6% 47% 42% -29.6%
all 45 -15.6% -23.6% 47% 42% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 42% -29.6%
10% -31.0% 27% -36.3%
15% -37.6% 24% -42.5%
20% -43.7% 18% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 $0 +46%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$4 -87%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -87%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -51%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$5 +71%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 5d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 71¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $1 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U BUY 46¢ $1 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 7d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $1 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $2 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records