Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E1 0xe1cc…28a0 sports 1231 markets active 3h ago coverage 62d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$167 (+0%) realized +$166 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%781W / 439L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$417est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,954
other 31% −$11
world 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -5.7% -14.7% 49% 49% +0.9%
≤30d 322 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 55% -10.0%
≤90d 1220 -3.0% -12.2% 64% 62% -12.2%
all 1220 -3.0% -12.2% 64% 62% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 62% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 48% -20.6%
15% -28.3% 30% -28.2%
20% -35.3% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$41 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,411
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses781 / 439
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$417
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1220 / 1231
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China coup attempt before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $600 $602 +$2 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $500 $502 +$2 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $30 $37 +$8 (+25%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 35¢ 34¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 49¢ 46¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? Yes 58¢ 46¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$131 +129%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$33 -66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$40 -78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$42 +83%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$49 +238%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $132 +$136 +103%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$27 +134%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $20 +$21 +101%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 +$23 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $30 +$23 +77%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $41 +$92 +226%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Venezuela (-2.5) Jun 10 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 +$31 +152%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 10 $61 −$61 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $51 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 11h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 11h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Scor BUY 51¢ $20 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 35¢ $31 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 36h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $20 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 25¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $102 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 16¢ $17 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 11¢ $11 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $30 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 54¢ $30 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 66¢ $20 4d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) BUY PARIVISION 69¢ $20 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 24¢ $20 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 51¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,410.54 · official $1,410.54 (match) · 3500 history records