Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1c9…748c sports 713 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,442 (+1%) realized +$2,418 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate88%599W / 83L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$9,457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$259
14 days+$58
30 days+$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$1,779
other 20% +$3,021
world 8% −$3,605
politics 6% +$624
crypto 1% +$253
tech 0% −$12
culture 0% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -0.8% -10.3% 87% 33% -10.5%
≤30d 217 +3.0% -6.8% 88% 43% -8.8%
≤90d 546 +1.2% -8.4% 89% 37% -7.7%
all 682 +0.8% -8.8% 88% 36% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 36% -8.8%
10% -17.5% 13% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 5% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$166 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$9,457
Realized+$2,418
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses599 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions31
Markets (closed)682 / 713
History coverage250d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2,800 $2,903 +$103 (+4%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 93¢ $1,365 $1,435 +$70 (+5%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $500 $517 +$17 (+3%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $350 −$150 (-30%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 78¢ $300 $272 −$28 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 82¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+6%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $201 $212 +$11 (+6%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $200 $205 +$4 (+2%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $150 $204 +$54 (+36%)
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals No 86¢ 86¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 95¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 78¢ 76¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 79¢ $201 $187 −$14 (-7%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $174 $180 +$6 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 72¢ $105 $113 +$9 (+8%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 99¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? No 87¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? No 84¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ assists No 87¢ 86¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
João Cancelo: 1+ goals No 91¢ 88¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 92¢ $88 $96 +$8 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $200 +$17 +8%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $301 +$39 +13%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $200 +$8 +4%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists Jun 17 $100 +$17 +16%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,001 +$32 +3%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $200 +$8 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $490 +$22 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$32 +16%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $1,000 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $200 +$10 +5%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $200 +$8 +4%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 16 $32 +$21 +64%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ goals Jun 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ goals Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $201 +$14 +7%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,001 +$21 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$14 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $301 +$19 +6%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $22 +$16 +75%
Martín Zubimendi: 1+ goals Jun 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $50 +$12 +25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$44 -44%
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? Jun 15 $101 +$17 +17%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1,008 +$146 +14%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $200 +$7 +4%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1,001 +$47 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $501 +$22 +4%
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $301 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $200 1h
Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ assists BUY No 87¢ $100 6h
João Cancelo: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $100 6h
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $201 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 84¢ $100 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 87¢ $100 6h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 94¢ $100 9h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 87¢ $100 9h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 87¢ $100 10h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 91¢ $100 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $200 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 96¢ $200 13h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists BUY No 85¢ $100 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 92¢ $100 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $300 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $190 13h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $50 14h
Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals BUY No 92¢ $200 14h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 98¢ $200 14h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 97¢ $100 14h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY No 83¢ $101 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $200 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $500 17h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY No 94¢ $100 23h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $200 27h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 90¢ $100 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,457.30 · official $9,457.30 (match) · 1905 history records