Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E1 0xe1c8…e724 other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%36W / 64L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$3
sports 29% +$7
other 17% +$7
politics 9% −$3
economics 7% $0
crypto 1% +$3
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 44 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 2% -9.5%
all 100 -0.0% -9.6% 36% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses36 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage478d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $96 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $185 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $92 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $93 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $193 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $401 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $77 −$3 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $116 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $108 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $355 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $445 −$3 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $7 −$1 -22%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $138 +$2 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $96 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $331 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $109 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $210 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $230 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $108 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $75 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $301 +$2 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $226 −$2 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $199 −$3 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $197 +$8 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $104 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $91 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $90 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $92 −$4 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $204 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $59 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $85 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $945 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $943 +$2 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $47 +$1 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $942 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $942 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1,037 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,036 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $649 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 24 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Jack Doohan finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $4 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $90 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $96 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $96 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $97 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $88 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $88 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $87 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $91 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $91 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $92 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $83 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $93 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $71 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $102 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $92 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $91 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $57 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $90 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $73 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $77 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $92 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $86 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 359 history records