Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1c1…3159 other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$113 (+1%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%15W / 88L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$18
politics 31% −$5
sports 7% +$135
world 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +3.5% -6.4% 15% 11% -8.8%
all 103 +3.5% -6.4% 15% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 11% -8.8%
10% -15.3% 10% -17.6%
15% -23.5% 10% -25.5%
20% -31.0% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×15.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses15 / 88
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage83d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $138 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 22 $266 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $351 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $335 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $270 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $233 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $117 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $313 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $121 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $124 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $253 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $119 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $242 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $113 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $480 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $389 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $330 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $291 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 10d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 12d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 15d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 16d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 20d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 23d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $24 25d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $24 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.17 · official $19.17 (match) · 284 history records