Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1bf…c3ca crypto 823 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%257W / 553L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$389
7 days+$507
14 days+$114
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$258
other 1% −$97
world 1% +$30
finance 0% −$57
politics 0% −$22
sports 0% +$2
economics 0% −$17
weather 0% −$4
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 50% -3.9%
≤30d 347 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 43% -11.2%
≤90d 592 -33.2% -39.6% 28% 27% -16.6%
all 810 -25.8% -32.9% 32% 29% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 29% -12.7%
10% -39.3% 28% -21.0%
15% -45.1% 26% -28.6%
20% -50.5% 24% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses257 / 553
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)810 / 823
History coverage144d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 810 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+64%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Bill Gates charged by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 299 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $185 +$119 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$54 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$53 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$58 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $123 +$62 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$28 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$96 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +525%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $309 +$206 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $155 +$144 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $185 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $62 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $62 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $61 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $61 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $33 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $134 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $309 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.12 · official $6.12 (match) · 1627 history records