Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1be…c3f6 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$118 (-1%) realized −$31 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$109
14 days−$22
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$111
crypto 28% −$441
tech 19% +$174
other 11% −$154
politics 4% +$25
sports 4% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +26.4% +14.4% 78% 67% +0.4%
≤30d 25 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 44% -11.9%
≤90d 44 -10.5% -19.0% 57% 41% -10.9%
all 44 -10.5% -19.0% 57% 41% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 41% -10.9%
10% -26.7% 30% -19.4%
15% -33.8% 23% -27.2%
20% -40.3% 20% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$42 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,363
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions12
Markets (closed)44 / 56
History coverage61d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $501 $490 −$11 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 92¢ 94¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 73¢ 72¢ $149 $146 −$3 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$16 -78%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +39%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +85%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $875 +$85 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$41 -40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$28 -54%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $401 +$25 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1,000 +$51 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $254 +$18 +7%
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Ch Jun 04 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $101 +$21 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $96 +$25 +26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,715 −$340 -20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $354 −$149 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,190 +$88 +7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 +$63 +21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $770 +$102 +13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $224 +$43 +19%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$2 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $6 −$5 -84%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $6 −$6 -98%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin May 02 $20 +$7 +32%
Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $12 −$12 -98%
Will FK Spartak Moskva win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $167 +$57 +34%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $46 +$4 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $21 −$5 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $151 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $201 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $70 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $196 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $321 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $9 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $51 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $100 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $46 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $112 10d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $27 11d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,363.26 · official $1,363.28 (match) · 200 history records