Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1be…9f77 crypto 179 markets active 6d ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate66%119W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.8% -27.4% 45% 45% -21.7%
≤30d 48 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 62% -16.2%
≤90d 179 -0.1% -9.7% 66% 63% -11.1%
all 179 -0.1% -9.7% 66% 63% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 63% -11.1%
10% -18.3% 50% -19.6%
15% -26.2% 25% -27.4%
20% -33.4% 8% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses119 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage41d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $34 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $25 −$12 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $18 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $13 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4AM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6PM ET Jun 03 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4PM ET Jun 02 $13 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9AM ET Jun 02 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11AM ET May 30 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET May 30 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET May 30 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6AM ET May 30 $9 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET May 29 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2PM ET May 25 $29 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12PM ET May 25 $20 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11AM ET May 25 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10AM ET May 25 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9AM ET May 25 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8AM ET May 25 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8PM ET May 25 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4PM ET May 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7PM ET May 24 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5PM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12PM ET May 23 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9AM ET May 23 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8AM ET May 23 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7AM ET May 23 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6AM ET May 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10AM ET May 22 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET May 20 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7PM ET May 18 $8 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET May 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6PM ET May 17 $11 +$6 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $12 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $18 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $13 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 386 history records