Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1be…9ee6 crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$261 (+1%) realized +$262 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%61W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$19
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$86
finance 15% +$38
economics 15% +$37
other 11% +$62
politics 4% +$2
tech 3% +$10
world 3% +$14
sports 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 15 -5.2% -14.2% 93% 0% -8.5%
all 65 -0.0% -9.5% 94% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -8.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$717) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×16.29 per $1 lost it wins $16.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$1,137
Realized+$262
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses61 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage263d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,138 $1,137 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 24 $845 +$7 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $283 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $1,211 +$10 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $275 +$4 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 27 $1,114 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $748 +$5 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 18 $353 +$8 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 02 $717 +$1 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 30 $283 +$4 +1%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $709 +$8 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $1,385 +$27 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 23 $562 +$4 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 09 $258 +$21 +8%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 03 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 4? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Mar 25 $933 +$7 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 19 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 9-15? Mar 14 $918 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 13 $1,038 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? Mar 12 $301 +$3 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Mar 12 $176 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13? Mar 12 $445 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 12 $335 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? Mar 10 $411 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $200 in March? Mar 07 $333 +$2 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Mar 02 $599 +$2 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 26 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 25 $229 +$4 +2%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 23 $365 +$10 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 03 $226 +$3 +1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 03 $379 −$14 -4%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Jan 29 $214 +$9 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $214 +$2 +1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $349 +$30 +9%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 21 $198 +$16 +8%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $167 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Nov 30 $165 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 27 $165 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Nov 27 $161 +$4 +3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 21 $83 +$2 +2%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 21 $108 +$5 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 19 $94 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 19 $97 +$2 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $164 +$1 +1%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Nov 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $451 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 02 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,138 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $852 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $99 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $845 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $845 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $283 22d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $279 23d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $275 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $140 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $140 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $1,117 26d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $1,117 28d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,114 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $753 36d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $361 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $748 49d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $165 52d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 52d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $0 52d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $0 52d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 53d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 53d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $8 53d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $0 53d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $287 54d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $96 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $717 58d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 99¢ $709 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,137.01 · official $1,137.01 (match) · 234 history records