Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1be…4f70 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$428 (-36%) realized −$428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$30
world 36% −$419
crypto 26% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -43.0% -48.5% 18% 18% -53.8%
≤30d 17 -43.0% -48.5% 18% 18% -53.8%
≤90d 17 -43.0% -48.5% 18% 18% -53.8%
all 17 -43.0% -48.5% 18% 18% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.5% 18% -53.8%
10% -53.4% 18% -58.2%
15% -57.9% 12% -62.3%
20% -62.0% 12% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$49 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$51 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$112 +343%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $419 −$419 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 12 $447 −$30 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? SELL No 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records