Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E1 0xe1bd…b053 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$179 (+13%) realized +$226 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day76.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$92
other 30% +$169
world 5% −$26
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +26.4% +14.4% 53% 47% +12.0%
≤30d 19 +26.4% +14.4% 53% 47% +12.0%
≤90d 19 +26.4% +14.4% 53% 47% +12.0%
all 19 +26.4% +14.4% 53% 47% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.4% 47% +12.0%
10% ← realistic here +3.4% 47% +1.3%
15% -6.6% 42% -8.5%
20% -15.7% 32% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$14 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$226
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day76.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 50¢ $64 $68 +$3 (+5%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 42¢ 17¢ $31 $13 −$19 (-59%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 +$21 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $227 +$102 +45%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $386 +$29 +7%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 +$29 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $130 +$68 +52%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $22 +$74 +334%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 −$9 -36%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $13 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$25 -48%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $31 +$7 +23%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $57 +$25 +43%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $31 +$32 +103%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $23 +$19 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $66 47m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $15 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $18 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $108 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $23 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $74 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $17 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $19 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $41 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 5h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 42¢ $32 6h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $38 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.66 · official $117.98 · 96 history records