Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:48:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1b9…c84f crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$180 (+6%) realized +$180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate100%43W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$163
14 days+$179
30 days+$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 14% -4.2%
≤30d 43 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 16% -3.9%
≤90d 43 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 16% -3.9%
all 43 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 16% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 16% -3.9%
10% -12.7% 0% -13.1%
15% -21.2% 0% -21.5%
20% -28.9% 0% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses43 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage8d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $66 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $71 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $43 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $70 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $134 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $145 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $88 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $44 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $85 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $92 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $138 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $111 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $144 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $99 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $84 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $54 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $66 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $98 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $43 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $69 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$16 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $66 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $43 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $70 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $134 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $145 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $125 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $88 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $13 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $23 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $101 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $44 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $43 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $92 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $138 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $111 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $144 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records