Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E1 0xe1b7…7672 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$303 (-6%) realized −$209 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$523per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.5% +6.3% 100% 100% +6.3%
≤30d 1 +17.5% +6.3% 100% 100% +6.3%
≤90d 1 +17.5% +6.3% 100% 100% +6.3%
all 1 +17.5% +6.3% 100% 100% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.3% 100% +6.3%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 0% -3.8%
15% -13.1% 0% -13.1%
20% -21.7% 0% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,578
Realized−$209
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$523
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $1,893 $1,810 −$83 (-4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1,700 $1,688 −$12 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+13%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,009 +$177 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,578.13 · official $3,578.13 (match) · 14 history records