Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1b5…20ac other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1987 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$233 (-0%) realized −$232 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 38L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$933per market
Trades / day1987.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$9
other 37% +$21
world 20% +$88
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1987 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +0.2% -9.4% 19% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 47 +0.2% -9.4% 19% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 47 +0.2% -9.4% 19% 0% -9.3%
all 47 +0.2% -9.4% 19% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1987.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$727) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
36.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$0 · ×37.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.71 per $1 lost it wins $9.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$232
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$933
Trades / day1987.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $2,456 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 16 $470 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $987 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,072 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $481 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $17,971 −$9 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $163 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $1,666 +$30 +2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $727 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $887 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,706 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $744 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $507 $0 -0%
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $251 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $462 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $434 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $81 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $988 +$29 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $524 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,003 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,077 +$24 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $939 +$30 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $120 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $76 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $44 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $41 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $41 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $71 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $71 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $28 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $12 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $34 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $6 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $40 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $30 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $30 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $23 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $37 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $31 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $18 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $61 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $61 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $42 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $7 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $7 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $49 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $33 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $7 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $32 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $39 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $39 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.24 · official $213.62 (match) · 3500 history records