Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E1 0xe1b5…fb35 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$141per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-1.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+9.1%	-1.3%	100%	33%	-0.2%
≤30d	3	+9.1%	-1.3%	100%	33%	-0.2%
≤90d	3	+9.1%	-1.3%	100%	33%	-0.2%
all	3	+9.1%	-1.3%	100%	33%	-0.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.3%	33%	-0.2%
10%	-10.7%	0%	-9.7%
15%	-19.3%	0%	-18.5%
20%	-27.2%	0%	-26.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 88% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$21 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$100

Realized+$7

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$141

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	82¢	82¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$501	+$55	+11%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$5	$0	+9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$98	+$7	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$50	25m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$50	25m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	93¢	$200	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	54¢	$6	1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	93¢	$98	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.01 · official $100.01 (match) · 11 history records