Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E1 0xe1b3…1426 world 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$103,544 (+26%) realized +$126,281 · open −$22,737
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate75%150W / 50L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$1,668per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$76,536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$684
7 days+$9,559
14 days+$9,695
30 days+$68,300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$12,736
politics 28% +$19,996
crypto 25% +$16,877
tech 7% +$4,779
other 7% +$5,081
finance 1% −$893
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +101.0% +81.9% 68% 59% +107.2%
≤30d 70 +64.6% +48.9% 74% 56% +22.5%
≤90d 200 +41.6% +28.1% 75% 47% +13.3%
all 200 +41.6% +28.1% 75% 47% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.1% 47% +13.3%
10% +15.8% 34% +2.4%
15% ← realistic here +4.7% 22% -7.5%
20% -5.6% 19% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$778) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$636 vs −$281 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.79 per $1 lost it wins $6.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$76,536
Realized+$126,281
Unrealized−$22,737
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses150 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Open positions48
Markets (closed)200 / 243
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$1,668
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $25,000 $42,025 +$17,025 (+68%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $25,000 $7,975 −$17,025 (-68%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 67¢ 95¢ $2,618 $3,725 +$1,107 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 82¢ $2,640 $2,731 +$92 (+3%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 88¢ 95¢ $1,831 $1,967 +$136 (+7%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $1,697 $1,917 +$219 (+13%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $1,050 $1,312 +$262 (+25%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 47¢ 25¢ $2,179 $1,164 −$1,015 (-47%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $984 $1,004 +$20 (+2%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $7,473 $986 −$6,486 (-87%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 98¢ $778 $959 +$181 (+23%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $830 $942 +$112 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 60¢ 62¢ $780 $800 +$20 (+2%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $584 $598 +$13 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 65¢ 90¢ $420 $585 +$165 (+39%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 33¢ 48¢ $400 $570 +$170 (+43%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $557 $563 +$6 (+1%)
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $556 $557 +$2 (+0%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $463 $508 +$45 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 93¢ 100¢ $467 $498 +$31 (+7%)
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $491 $497 +$6 (+1%)
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $485 $490 +$5 (+1%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 90¢ 95¢ $429 $452 +$24 (+6%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $367 $386 +$19 (+5%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No 66¢ 74¢ $335 $374 +$39 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $516 +$684 +133%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $39 +$23 +59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $426 +$74 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $439 +$601 +137%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $399 +$604 +151%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $426 +$378 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $326 −$326 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $232 −$232 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $241 −$241 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $348 +$252 +72%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $369 +$1,303 +353%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 12 $766 +$1,071 +140%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $326 +$5,454 +1673%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $272 +$128 +47%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1480+? Jun 11 $488 +$30 +6%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $389 +$50 +13%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,045 +$65 +6%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 11 $397 −$28 -7%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 11 $44 −$31 -71%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 11 $222 +$9 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $850 −$165 -19%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $4,689 +$341 +7%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $91 +$9 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $59,653 +$9,627 +16%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $55,000 +$35,000 +64%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $1,139 +$361 +32%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $521 +$1,281 +246%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $12,203 +$176 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $756 +$231 +30%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,307 +$66 +5%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in May? Jun 01 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $221 +$2,194 +993%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $28,471 +$5,879 +21%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX have 14 or more launches in May? Jun 01 $208 +$2 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$30 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $82 +$27 +33%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $632 +$68 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $356 +$86 +24%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $254 −$83 -33%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $3,692 +$604 +16%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 31 $39 +$13 +35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $256 +$36 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $700 +$648 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $27 2h
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $300 2h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY No 90¢ $429 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $60 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $408 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $632 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $65 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $189 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $468 19h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 21h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 21h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 21h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 21h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 22h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 22h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 22h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 22h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 22h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 22h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 23h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 23h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76,535.66 · official $76,518.89 (match) · 3500 history records