Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E1 0xe1af…d23b sports 790 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,853 (-0%) realized −$1,860 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate94%738W / 51L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,006per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$3,512
14 days−$3,460
30 days−$4,849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$574
other 11% −$842
world 0% +$80
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.5% -14.5% 92% 0% -35.8%
≤30d 61 -1.8% -11.1% 90% 16% -19.8%
≤90d 290 -2.7% -12.0% 92% 8% -10.3%
all 789 -0.7% -10.2% 94% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 9% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,484) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$325 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized−$1,860
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses738 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)789 / 790
History coverage145d ⚠
Avg bet$1,006
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 98¢ 99¢ $490 $497 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,013 +$17 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $174 +$4 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,163 +$36 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,147 +$6 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $339 +$11 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $240 +$10 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,076 +$55 +5%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,066 +$10 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,038 +$27 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,020 +$10 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,706 −$3,706 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,342 +$51 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $45 +$15 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $778 +$22 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $407 +$4 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $594 +$6 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3,606 +$4 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3,554 +$56 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $274 +$26 +10%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $3,360 +$160 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $425 +$75 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Yibing Wu vs Marcos Giron May 25 $277 +$23 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton May 25 $480 +$20 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $40 +$10 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz May 25 $260 +$40 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $598 −$545 -91%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino May 25 $297 +$3 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic May 25 $80 +$20 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Maya Joint vs Anastasia Potapova May 25 $297 +$3 +1%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5 May 25 $11 +$2 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Emma Raducanu vs Solana Sierra May 24 $383 +$17 +5%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $245 +$5 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,042 +$32 +3%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $485 +$15 +3%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $466 +$34 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic May 24 $288 +$12 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 24 $279 +$21 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Fiona Ferro May 24 $297 +$3 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Beatriz Haddad Maia May 24 $277 −$212 -77%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti May 24 $291 +$9 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Volynets vs Clara Burel May 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Sinja Kraus vs Belinda Bencic May 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $554 +$96 +17%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $37 +$6 +15%
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $292 +$74 +25%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $226 +$13 +6%
FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $76 +$7 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $490 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $1,013 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $174 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $52 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,112 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 91¢ $91 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $240 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 97¢ $339 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $79 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $970 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $26 3d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $1,066 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 97¢ $548 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 98¢ $490 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $909 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $40 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $13 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $66 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $646 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $13 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $40 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $66 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $873 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 87¢ $873 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 83¢ $167 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 98¢ $333 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 98¢ $143 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.00 · official $496.25 (match) · 3500 history records