Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe1ad…f3fc
crypto · 899 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$123 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$123 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses676 / 213
Open positions10
Markets (closed)889 / 899
History coverage88d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 889 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$42
14 days−$22
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 93¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$121
other 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 399 -1.9% -11.2% 79% 55% -12.6%
≤30d 779 +1.0% -8.6% 78% 55% -13.0%
≤90d 889 +0.2% -9.3% 76% 53% -11.8%
all 889 +0.2% -9.3% 76% 53% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 53% -11.8%
10% -18.0% 29% -20.2%
15% -25.9% 4% -27.9%
20% -33.2% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.84 · official $10.84 (match) · 2085 history records