Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E1 0xe1ad…0734 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6 (+4%) realized +$1 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$26
sports 25% −$23
world 20% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +39.8% +26.5% 100% 100% +27.9%
≤30d 3 +83.3% +65.8% 100% 100% +39.4%
≤90d 6 +37.1% +24.0% 67% 67% -14.7%
all 9 +19.0% +7.6% 67% 56% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 56% -9.8%
10% -2.7% 56% -18.4%
15% -12.1% 44% -26.3%
20% -20.7% 22% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage102d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 44¢ 86¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+94%)
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No 69¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 66¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$8 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 13 $3 +$5 +170%
Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March? May 08 $2 +$3 +172%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs May 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: Draw at halftime? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $9 +$4 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.49 · official $54.49 (match) · 24 history records