Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E1 0xe1ac…7a86 crypto 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$174 (+2%) realized +$184 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%58W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$544
7 days+$605
14 days+$605
30 days+$605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$280
crypto 26% −$51
world 5% +$128
sports 5% +$1
culture 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +22.3% +10.6% 91% 65% -0.3%
≤30d 23 +22.3% +10.6% 91% 65% -0.3%
≤90d 88 -1.6% -11.0% 66% 55% -4.8%
all 90 -3.8% -13.0% 64% 53% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 53% -5.6%
10% -21.3% 38% -14.6%
15% -28.9% 28% -22.9%
20% -35.9% 20% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$34 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$184
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses58 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage97d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $658 +$41 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $453 +$57 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $436 +$164 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $373 +$63 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $310 +$63 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $252 +$58 +23%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 Jun 19 $163 +$86 +53%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 +$12 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$63 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $75 +$15 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $505 −$430 -85%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$27 +9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $157 +$23 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $429 +$27 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $297 +$131 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $257 +$41 +16%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $131 +$126 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $250 −$119 -48%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $233 +$17 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $220 +$13 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 01 $22 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 01 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 01 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 01 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 01 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 01 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 01 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 01 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 01 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 01 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 01 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 01 $30 −$19 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 01 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 01 $38 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 01 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 01 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 01 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 01 $40 −$17 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 01 $30 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 01 $90 +$21 +23%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 01 $100 −$3 -3%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights Mar 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 29 $17 +$10 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $16 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $28 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $29 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 22m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 33m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $699 39m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $658 42m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 92¢ $510 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $453 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $600 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 72¢ $436 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $436 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $373 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $373 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $310 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 98¢ $310 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $252 41h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 BUY 65¢ $163 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $166 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $153 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $90 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $90 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $75 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $75 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $505 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $328 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $301 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 227 history records