Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E1 0xe1ab…089e sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-2%) realized −$77 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%37W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$40
14 days−$1
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$163
other 22% −$215
sports 20% +$19
politics 4% +$34
crypto 3% −$81
finance 3% +$43
tech 2% +$14
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.4% -5.5% 64% 60% -7.2%
≤30d 40 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 50% -10.4%
≤90d 55 -3.5% -12.6% 67% 53% -10.4%
all 55 -3.5% -12.6% 67% 53% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 53% -10.4%
10% -21.0% 33% -18.9%
15% -28.6% 25% -26.8%
20% -35.6% 13% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$38 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses37 / 18
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage85d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-2%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 AND France to score first vs. Norway Jun 26 $25 +$31 +122%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U Jun 25 $13 +$24 +193%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $36 +$20 +55%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 −$7 -34%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 25 $57 −$37 -65%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Jun 25 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $37 +$11 +30%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $76 +$41 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $92 +$40 +44%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $228 +$31 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$40 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $82 +$49 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $72 +$10 +14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $43 +$29 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$14 +46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $191 +$23 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $42 −$41 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $124 +$19 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $115 +$9 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $96 +$18 +19%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 08 $94 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $85 +$8 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $67 −$63 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $53 +$15 +28%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $59 −$6 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $100 −$15 -15%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $136 +$23 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 31 $32 −$29 -91%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $23 +$8 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $120 +$16 +13%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $120 +$4 +3%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada May 26 $111 +$29 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $117 +$5 +4%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway May 24 $74 −$73 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $64 +$9 +14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 20 $105 +$12 +11%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $39 +$9 +24%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $36 +$3 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 5.5 Corners AND Panama vs. England: 1s BUY 55¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 69¢ $67 26h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 AND France to score first vs. Norway BUY 44¢ $25 26h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes $5 36h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $36 36h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 39¢ $13 36h
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $5 36h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 36h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 36h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 28¢ $20 36h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U BUY 34¢ $13 38h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL Yes 72¢ $13 38h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 67¢ $12 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 76¢ $37 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 4d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 78¢ $57 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $76 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $92 4d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $92 5d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $85 5d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 5d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.49 · official $121.19 · 118 history records