Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe1aa…7429
weather · 360 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$257 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$70 · open −$187
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$191
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$187
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses77 / 261
Open positions22
Markets (closed)338 / 360
History coverage44d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 22 History 338 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$11
14 days−$33
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 10¢ 65¢ $8 $52 +$44 (+538%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 34¢ 88¢ $13 $35 +$21 (+160%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 19¢ 80¢ $7 $31 +$24 (+324%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 38¢ 35¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $51 $7 −$44 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $52 $4 −$48 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 39¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $40 $2 −$38 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 33¢ 3¢ $26 $2 −$24 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $64 $2 −$63 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 12? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$26 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$32 +585%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$18 +754%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$102 +763%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$30 +386%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$23 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$49 +329%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 +$21 +857%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$30 +404%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$29 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$28 +363%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$32 +513%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$20 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$238
world 1% −$25
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 17¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 24¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 24¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +20.1% +8.6% 23% 23% -10.4%
≤30d 307 +12.2% +1.5% 22% 22% -10.3%
≤90d 338 +12.1% +1.4% 23% 23% -11.9%
all 338 +12.1% +1.4% 23% 23% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 23% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 22% -20.3%
15% -17.2% 21% -28.0%
20% -25.3% 21% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.81 · official $190.81 (match) · 1286 history records