Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

E1 0xe1a7…4380 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$300 (-42%) realized −$290 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$142per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$300 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$190

Realized−$290

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$142

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$100	$93	−$7 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$300	−$300	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	7¢	$103	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-	BUY	26¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	1h
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? AND Germany to score first v	BUY	7¢	$103	1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	2¢	$26	4d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	2¢	$8	4d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	2¢	$8	4d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	2¢	$250	4d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	2¢	$8	4d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.48 · official $390.48 · 11 history records