Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1a6…d584 other 1145 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38,989 (+4%) realized +$36,624 · open +$2,365
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%618W / 484L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$896per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$6,334est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$40,793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38,024
7 days−$12,042
14 days−$6,831
30 days−$242,885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$39,409
sports 47% −$10,858
world 1% +$1,390
crypto 0% +$514
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +2.5% -7.3% 45% 41% -17.8%
≤30d 641 -41.5% -47.1% 30% 29% -49.6%
≤90d 1102 +6.4% -3.8% 56% 55% -7.0%
all 1102 +6.4% -3.8% 56% 55% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 55% -7.0%
10% -13.0% 53% -15.9%
15% ← realistic here -21.4% 46% -24.0%
20% -29.1% 37% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,288) neutral
Persistence
early +70% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$631 vs −$750 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$40,793
Realized+$36,624
Unrealized+$2,365
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses618 / 484
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$6,334
Open positions43
Markets (closed)1102 / 1145
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$896
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 1102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $3,234 $3,255 +$21 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $3,171 $3,234 +$63 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $2,436 $3,129 +$693 (+28%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $2,982 $3,003 +$21 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $2,058 $2,121 +$63 (+3%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $1,974 $1,995 +$21 (+1%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 78¢ $1,110 $1,587 +$477 (+43%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 98¢ $1,218 $1,376 +$158 (+13%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $1,148 $1,368 +$220 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $1,219 $1,297 +$78 (+6%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $910 $1,295 +$385 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,252 $1,292 +$40 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $868 $1,281 +$413 (+48%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $1,286 $1,242 −$45 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $1,218 $1,183 −$35 (-3%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 78¢ $944 $1,015 +$71 (+8%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $1,190 $1,001 −$189 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 70¢ $938 $987 +$49 (+5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $1,106 $973 −$133 (-12%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 54¢ $518 $749 +$231 (+45%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $574 $735 +$161 (+28%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 57¢ $807 $725 −$82 (-10%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 44¢ $420 $623 +$203 (+48%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $644 $567 −$77 (-12%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $440 $550 +$110 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,047 +$2,153 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,089 +$2,111 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,078 +$849 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $987 +$1,159 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,837 −$1,806 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,504 −$3,486 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $392 −$392 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 17 $908 −$908 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,094 −$1,094 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $930 −$930 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,376 −$1,376 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $818 −$818 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $1,053 −$1,053 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $611 −$611 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $2,717 −$2,717 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,352 −$2,352 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,302 −$1,302 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,806 −$1,806 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,550 −$2,550 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,890 −$1,890 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,256 −$3,256 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 17 $1,963 −$1,963 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,352 −$2,352 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $1,329 −$1,329 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,310 −$2,310 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3,024 −$3,024 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,049 −$3,049 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,286 −$1,286 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,360 +$840 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,441 −$241 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,756 +$1,444 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,016 +$2,184 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,421 +$779 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,242 +$436 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,596 +$2,604 +163%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,032 +$168 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4,190 +$10 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $388 +$3,812 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $802 +$904 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $948 +$467 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,008 +$3,192 +317%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $3,008 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2,089 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2,047 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2,005 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1,837 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $3,504 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $767 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $107 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $85 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $567 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $12 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $45 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $146 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $568 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $274 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $22 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $57 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $46 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $11 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $329 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $2,089 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $2,467 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3,256 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2,089 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $3,360 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $3,150 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,793.31 · official $40,710.23 (match) · 3500 history records