Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E1 0xe1a5…885e crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate85%57W / 10L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$3
tech 19% −$77
other 16% +$17
politics 6% +$75
finance 3% +$2
sports 2% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +0.4% -9.2% 94% 0% -9.2%
all 67 -3.7% -12.8% 85% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 7% -9.3%
10% -21.2% 7% -18.0%
15% -28.8% 6% -25.9%
20% -35.8% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$555
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses57 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage610d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $310 $310 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $245 $245 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $150 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $194 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 10? Jun 10 $225 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $143 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 07 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 07 $166 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 07 $320 +$1 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 21 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 07 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? May 07 $180 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 07 $187 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 07 $224 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 April 6-12? Apr 20 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 20 $172 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Apr 11 $40 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 11 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $425 +$2 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Apr 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 4? Mar 15 $220 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $46 −$37 -80%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $500 −$42 -8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 05 $130 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 05 $210 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 05 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 14? Jan 22 $180 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 14 $160 +$3 +2%
Will Solana reach $310 before 2026? Jan 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 14 $350 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 01 $325 +$2 +1%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 01 $385 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 October 20-26? Nov 07 $215 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 October 20-26? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.60 on October 10? Oct 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.60 on October 10? Oct 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 10? Oct 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 10 $80 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 10 $128 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 20 $230 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4000 on August 13? Aug 23 $250 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Aug 13 $198 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 10 $80 +$1 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? Jul 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $152 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $245 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $150 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $310 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $195 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $144 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $194 17d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $225 17d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $320 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $143 34d
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $115 48d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $166 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $187 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $180 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $172 74d
Will Solana reach $110 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $150 74d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $134 74d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $224 74d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 96¢ $155 74d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar BUY No 99¢ $40 99d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $85 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 101d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $220 113d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $325 113d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $549 137d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 137d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 90¢ $458 137d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $500 139d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.66 · official $554.66 (match) · 137 history records