Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1a4…b0ce crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$52 (-29%) realized −$45 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +140% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +118% what you keep after slip
Net edge+118%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$41
other 24% −$10
sports 6% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+117.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +140.5% +117.6% 33% 17% -46.6%
≤30d 6 +140.5% +117.6% 33% 17% -46.6%
≤90d 6 +140.5% +117.6% 33% 17% -46.6%
all 6 +140.5% +117.6% 33% 17% -46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +117.6% 17% -46.6%
10% +96.8% 17% -51.7%
15% +77.8% 17% -56.4%
20% +60.3% 17% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +140% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$30 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $108 −$101 -94%
Iraq to score first vs. France? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$66 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $107 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 3d
Iraq to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.73 · official $32.73 (match) · 12 history records