Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1a3…24ea other 145 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,861 (-12%) realized −$1,495 · open −$366
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 120L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$75
14 days−$734
30 days−$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$48
world 39% −$1,293
crypto 11% −$751
politics 7% +$33
sports 1% −$2
finance 1% −$93
tech 0% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-52.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -5.8% -14.7% 20% 20% -15.4%
≤30d 38 -22.4% -29.8% 21% 21% -13.0%
≤90d 136 -46.9% -52.0% 12% 10% -24.0%
all 136 -46.9% -52.0% 12% 10% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.0% 10% -24.0%
10% -56.6% 10% -31.3%
15% -60.8% 7% -37.9%
20% -64.6% 6% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -76% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$49 · ×5.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized−$1,495
Unrealized−$366
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)136 / 145
History coverage73d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $100 $45 −$55 (-55%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $124 $31 −$93 (-75%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $100 $20 −$80 (-80%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $29 −$3 -12%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 −$23 -11%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 +$279 +543%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$3 -3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 19 $300 −$94 -31%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $19 −$3 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,670 −$20 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $90 +$95 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $294 −$284 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $668 −$375 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $725 +$236 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $312 −$247 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $674 +$206 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $209 −$166 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $529 −$453 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $37 −$30 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $609 +$912 +150%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $177 +$528 +298%
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 27 $107 −$100 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 22 $450 −$77 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $193 −$140 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $105 −$82 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $226 +$671 +297%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 22 $35 −$33 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 22 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 22 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 22 $21 −$20 -95%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 20 $292 −$168 -58%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $63 −$60 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $101 −$96 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 19 $19 −$18 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $76 −$72 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $31 −$30 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $310 −$154 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $145 +$7 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $153 9m
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 6¢ $25 11m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 16¢ $50 11m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $182 11m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $330 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $99 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 8h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $206 8h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 15h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $300 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $406 16h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $16 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $16 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 9¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.16 · official $408.20 (match) · 285 history records