Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1a1…c7e4 politics 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,693 (-1%) realized −$1,694 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,125per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$18
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$58
politics 38% −$53
economics 5% −$9
world 5% −$226
sports 3% −$1,384
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -5.8% -14.8% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 101 -4.6% -13.7% 5% 3% -10.9%
all 101 -4.6% -13.7% 5% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 3% -10.9%
10% -21.9% 3% -19.4%
15% -29.5% 3% -27.2%
20% -36.4% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,573) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$1,694
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage85d
Avg bet$1,125
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $225 $227 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $304 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $978 −$2 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $355 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $967 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $409 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $2,015 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $516 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,796 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $119 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $4,278 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,934 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $653 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $864 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,910 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $326 +$1 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $602 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $246 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,044 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $2,728 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $52 +$70 +134%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $30 +$12 +40%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $449 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $304 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $304 2h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $274 17h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 21h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $355 22h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $355 25h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $325 43h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $325 45h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $256 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $256 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $409 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $409 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $454 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $454 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $515 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $516 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $475 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $476 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $445 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $446 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $477 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $477 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $542 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $225 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $543 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $692 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $693 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $695 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $119 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $119 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.82 · official $226.82 (match) · 317 history records