Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1a0…21ac world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$6
other 29% $0
sports 13% $0
politics 10% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.2% -12.4% 38% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 19 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 19 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 0% -10.4%
all 57 -0.6% -10.1% 39% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage306d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$3 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $24 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $50 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $40 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $6 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 08 $23 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.90 (match) · 187 history records