Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe197…2ce7 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$149 (-10%) realized −$31 · open −$118
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$177
other 34% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -22.8% -30.2% 19% 19% -23.1%
≤30d 26 -22.8% -30.2% 19% 19% -23.1%
≤90d 26 -22.8% -30.2% 19% 19% -23.1%
all 26 -22.8% -30.2% 19% 19% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 19% -23.1%
10% -36.9% 15% -30.5%
15% -43.0% 15% -37.2%
20% -48.6% 15% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$33 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 21
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 60¢ 10¢ $141 $24 −$118 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $122 +$23 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $77 −$56 -72%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$20 -47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$96 +186%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $72 −$58 -81%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $52 +$56 +109%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $103 −$59 -57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $52 +$186 +361%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $173 +$128 +74%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$5 -17%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $144 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $122 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $22 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $77 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $52 11h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran $2 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $43 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 35h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes $14 35h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $108 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 37h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 16¢ $44 37h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $52 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $51 41h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $103 41h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 10¢ $16 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 20¢ $31 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $82 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 21¢ $52 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $52 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 17¢ $37 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.55 · official $23.55 (match) · 64 history records