Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E1 0xe196…b2b8 weather 775 markets active 7h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$174 (-6%) realized −$164 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%183W / 536L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day93.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$947
7 days−$946
14 days−$600
30 days−$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% −$282
crypto 14% +$217
other 7% +$209
tech 3% −$26
politics 2% +$17
sports 2% −$26
culture 2% −$19
world 1% $0
finance 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -87.3% -88.5% 5% 4% -94.4%
≤30d 351 -33.1% -39.5% 10% 9% -59.6%
≤90d 719 -19.7% -27.3% 25% 25% -41.2%
all 719 -19.7% -27.3% 25% 25% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 25% -41.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 20% -46.8%
15% -40.6% 15% -52.0%
20% -46.4% 11% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses183 / 536
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions95
Markets (closed)719 / 775
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day93.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 95 History 719 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 8¢ 28¢ $4 $15 +$11 (+262%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 82¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 25¢ 49¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+99%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 87¢ 93¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+104%)
Will DR Congo win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+447%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic + OpenAI 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 96¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? No 84¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-62%)
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 78¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? No 93¢ 87¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 56¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 402 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 10? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 8? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on May 7? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 9? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 10? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 6? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 4? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 4? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 9? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 9? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 9? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 4? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 8? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 12? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 10? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 11? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 2? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 30? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 8? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 9? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on May 8? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 10? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 10? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 9? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 8? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 6? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 6? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 10? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +628%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.77 · official $184.78 (match) · 3500 history records