Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe196…7976 crypto 893 markets active 11h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,315 (-14%) realized −$17,988 · open −$327
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%266W / 600L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days−$645
14 days−$1,076
30 days−$1,283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$16,350
other 13% −$6,751
sports 5% −$1,149
politics 1% −$319
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +25.0% +13.1% 34% 26% -35.2%
≤30d 118 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 24% -24.2%
≤90d 294 -13.9% -22.1% 22% 20% -49.1%
all 866 -8.8% -17.5% 31% 29% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 29% -28.5%
10% -25.4% 28% -35.4%
15% -32.6% 26% -41.6%
20% -39.2% 25% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$112 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$825
Realized−$17,988
Unrealized−$327
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses266 / 600
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions5
Markets (closed)866 / 893
History coverage145d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 866 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $230 $421 +$191 (+83%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 61¢ $200 $160 −$40 (-20%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $691 $141 −$550 (-80%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 13¢ $23 $92 +$70 (+305%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp Jun 16 $12 +$206 +1668%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $325 −$321 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $200 +$9 +4%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$128 +1245%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $216 +$19 +9%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $242 −$239 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada vs. Bosnia Jun 12 $12 +$28 +226%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $9 +$54 +596%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $6 +$21 +365%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$22 +516%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $72 −$37 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$10 +248%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$8 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $115 −$110 -96%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY 3¢ $14 11h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 1¢ $5 11h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. BUY 12¢ $17 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $17 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $9 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 17¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $7 2d
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Egypt 1¢ $3 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 4¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp BUY 5¢ $12 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 11¢ $8 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Egypt win on 202 BUY 3¢ $9 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a BUY 12¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY 8¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 11¢ $14 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 21¢ $15 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $55 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $124 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $36 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $825.40 · official $861.46 · 1992 history records