Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe195…3448 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-4%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate82%31W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -2.9% -12.1% 82% 34% -11.9%
≤30d 38 -2.9% -12.1% 82% 34% -11.9%
≤90d 38 -2.9% -12.1% 82% 34% -11.9%
all 38 -2.9% -12.1% 82% 34% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 34% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 16% -20.4%
15% -28.2% 11% -28.1%
20% -35.2% 8% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$26 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses31 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $150 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$26 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$16 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $71 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $101 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $35 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $35 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records