Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:35:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe192…7689 weather 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$680 (+1%) realized +$675 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%182W / 10L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$53
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 40% +$114
crypto 19% +$386
other 18% +$63
world 11% +$60
politics 10% +$42
tech 1% +$3
sports 1% +$2
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 49 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 2% -8.4%
≤90d 96 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 1% -8.9%
all 192 +1.9% -7.8% 95% 1% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 1% -8.2%
10% -16.7% 1% -17.0%
15% -24.7% 1% -25.0%
20% -32.1% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×24.22 per $1 lost it wins $24.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$2,324
Realized+$675
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses182 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)192 / 209
History coverage602d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $478 $478 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $256 $257 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $255 $254 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 27°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 25? No 100¢ 99¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $114 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 25? No 98¢ 99¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $67 +$10 +14%
Will UAE replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 $0 +2%
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $872 +$23 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $126 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $285 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $118 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $35 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $189 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $78 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 8? Jun 09 $207 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 8? Jun 08 $136 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 8? Jun 08 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $219 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 8? Jun 08 $158 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 08 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $49 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $505 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 1? Jun 01 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $381 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $118 +$5 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $44 +$3 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $624 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 30? May 31 $449 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 30 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 29? May 29 $201 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 29? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $194 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $209 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 28? May 28 $409 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 27? May 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 27? May 27 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 27? May 27 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 27? May 27 $637 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on May 25? May 26 $634 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $302 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 26? May 25 $186 +$2 +1%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $645 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $145 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $71 1h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 18h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $100 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $278 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $200 19h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $200 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $19 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $100 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $109 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $115 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $149 10d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $126 10d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $113 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $114 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $74 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $211 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,324.25 · official $2,323.98 (match) · 816 history records