Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe191…2720 weather 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$746 (-27%) realized −$797 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$119
14 days−$123
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$78
weather 38% −$674
other 0% −$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-62.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -28.0% -34.9% 42% 42% -16.2%
≤30d 35 -58.8% -62.7% 20% 20% -20.0%
≤90d 41 -64.8% -68.2% 17% 17% -37.7%
all 48 -58.3% -62.3% 21% 19% -38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.3% 19% -38.9%
10% -65.9% 15% -44.8%
15% -69.2% 6% -50.1%
20% -72.2% 2% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$27 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$797
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 38
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage97d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 62¢ $200 $251 +$51 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $170 −$96 -57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $68 −$67 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $145 +$25 +17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $72 +$38 +53%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $270 −$21 -8%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $185 +$51 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $132 +$53 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $95 +$37 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $8 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: F9 Team vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $22 −$16 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $34 −$20 -58%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs BALU (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Cl May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $59 +$15 +26%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $18 −$3 -15%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$2 +24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $49 −$2 -4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $20 −$5 -24%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $12 −$7 -57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $16 −$4 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 18? Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 18? Mar 20 $166 −$166 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 14? Mar 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17? Mar 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 18? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 21? Mar 20 $142 −$142 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17? Mar 17 $111 −$35 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18? Mar 17 $50 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 17? Mar 16 $308 −$155 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 14? Mar 13 $11 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 14? Mar 13 $12 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 13? Mar 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 13? Mar 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $203 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 19¢ $68 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 16¢ $68 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $68 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $102 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $145 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $111 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $111 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $72 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $219 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $18 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 63¢ $30 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $270 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $185 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $185 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $132 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $95 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? SELL No 73¢ $46 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 77¢ $50 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 3? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.02 · official $251.02 (match) · 127 history records