Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe18e…5752 crypto 823 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized −$32 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%563W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$59
world 9% −$1
politics 3% +$3
other 3% −$8
finance 2% −$13
culture 1% −$5
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -2.2% -11.6% 59% 59% -4.9%
≤30d 311 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 61% -5.9%
≤90d 819 -2.3% -11.6% 69% 62% -11.7%
all 819 -2.3% -11.6% 69% 62% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 62% -11.7%
10% -20.1% 30% -20.2%
15% -27.8% 16% -27.9%
20% -34.9% 9% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses563 / 256
Open positions4
Markets (closed)819 / 823
History coverage78d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 819 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 31¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$10 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$8 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.01 · official $6.80 (match) · 1810 history records