Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe18e…b5b5 other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$35
sports 25% −$23
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage127d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $390 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $362 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $680 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $687 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $607 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $305 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $285 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $237 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $291 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $307 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 08 $180 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $219 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $326 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $302 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 54m
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 6h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 8h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 9h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 12h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 14h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 18h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 19h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 21h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $47 22h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 24h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $47 26h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $47 26h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 28h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 30h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 31h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 33h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 34h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 39h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 42h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 42h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 43h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.98 · official $45.98 (match) · 1322 history records