Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe18d…8a38 sports 625 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,022 (-12%) realized −$1,022 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%297W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$376
other 28% −$107
world 21% −$322
crypto 11% −$184
politics 5% −$2
tech 2% +$2
finance 2% −$23
weather 0% −$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +20.4% +8.9% 73% 73% +13.1%
≤30d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 62% +9.7%
≤90d 105 -24.7% -31.9% 46% 43% -18.3%
all 625 -14.2% -22.3% 48% 41% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 41% -19.9%
10% -29.8% 33% -27.5%
15% -36.6% 26% -34.5%
20% -42.8% 19% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,022
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses297 / 328
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)625 / 625
History coverage117d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 625 Trades
no open positions (214 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$37 +146%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$27 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 4 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 19 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-16? May 19 $64 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Q May 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$6 -57%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $56 +$12 +22%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $43 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Will MrBeast's video get between 60 and 62 million views on day 3? May 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 04 $5 +$1 +22%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $20 +$6 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Wildcard (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL Challen May 03 $20 +$5 +27%
Valorant: Mandatory vs F9 EICAR (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution Stage 2 May 03 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $20 +$23 +114%
Dota 2: Aim Possible vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group May 03 $10 +$7 +64%
Will SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$9 +91%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $20 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 5d
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY No 17¢ $5 16d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 4 BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 33d
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 34d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Q BUY GenOne 63¢ $4 34d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 34d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY PlayTime 75¢ $1 34d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $67 34d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 59¢ $68 34d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 70¢ $51 34d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 34d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1316 history records