Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E1 0xe18c…e6cc sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+10%) realized +$26 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$38
other 11% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +17.1% +6.0% 61% 61% -0.6%
≤30d 33 +17.1% +6.0% 61% 61% -0.6%
≤90d 33 +17.1% +6.0% 61% 61% -0.6%
all 33 +17.1% +6.0% 61% 61% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 61% -0.6%
10% -4.2% 61% -10.1%
15% -13.4% 61% -18.8%
20% -21.9% 52% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 63¢ 96¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+50%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 37¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$13 -88%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$13 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$3 -14%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $15 +$14 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$7 -65%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$12 +238%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +111%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $25 +$19 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $14 +$10 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 50m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $15 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain $2 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $15 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $15 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 32¢ $9 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $9 26h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 71¢ $10 26h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $10 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 27h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $5 44h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $10 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 45h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $4 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.81 · official $51.81 (match) · 66 history records