Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe18b…da2d other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+6%) realized +$46 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$105
14 days+$35
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$13
tech 25% +$2
sports 11% +$16
politics 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +31.3% +18.8% 100% 50% +18.9%
≤30d 5 -12.0% -20.3% 60% 40% -3.5%
≤90d 5 -12.0% -20.3% 60% 40% -3.5%
all 5 -12.0% -20.3% 60% 40% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 40% -3.5%
10% -28.0% 40% -12.8%
15% -34.9% 20% -21.2%
20% -41.3% 20% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$44 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage18d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $136 $133 −$3 (-3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $169 +$103 +61%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 25 $167 +$2 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $71 +$16 +22%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $4 −$2 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.59 · official $165.59 (match) · 14 history records