Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe189…16a6 other 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%18W / 207L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$37
sports 24% −$16
politics 10% −$9
culture 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 225 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses18 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)225 / 225
History coverage127d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 225 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $656 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 13 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $188 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $312 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $414 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $203 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $344 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $537 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $610 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $195 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $535 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $213 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $363 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $150 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 03 $341 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $353 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 3h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 4h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 6h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 6h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 7h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 16h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 17h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 19h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 21h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 22h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 23h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 25h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 27h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 28h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 31h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 32h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 35h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 37h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 37h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 39h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 40h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 42h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 47h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1314 history records